CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-04-15T06:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30075/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo to the E/NE, seen in all coronagraphs. The source is an eruption from AR 3636 (located at S21E30 at this time), observed best in SDO AIA 171/193/304 starting around 2024-04-15T05:36Z. ARRIVAL: Sudden increase in B-total from 5nT to 15nT detected by both DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-04-19T04:53Z. Simultaneous sudden increase in density at the start time of arrival, 2024-04-19T04:53Z. A sudden increase in temperature and speed is observed later at 2024-04-19T13:44Z, likely indicating the arrival of a flux rope. Corresponding rotation of B-field components observed in DSCOVR, which was the primary spacecraft at the time. Signature also observed in ACE. A gradual increase to peak value of 18nT was also observed during flux rope arrival. Bz remained predominantly in the negative regime for this arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-19T04:53Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-19T03:19Z (-9.52h, +9.11h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/04/15 06:30Z
Plane of Sky 1: 17:30Z; 31.5Rsun; E Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 20:30Z; 31.5Rsun; W Direction
POS Difference: 3:00
POS Midpoint: 19:00Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 12:30

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.43
Travel Time: ~7.43 * 12:30 = 92:49

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-04-19T03:19Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/04/15 23:22Z
Lead Time: 77.50 hour(s)
Difference: 1.57 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-04-15T23:23Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement